(Above, l-r): Dr Raphe Sonenshein, Executive Director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State LA; Sonja Diaz, Founding Director, UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative (LPPI); Jonathan Paik, Executive Director of Orange County Civic Engagement Table (OCCET Action); Janette Robinson-Flint, Black Women for Wellness; and Michael Gomez Daly, Inland Empire United/Inland Empowerment. (Siliconeer/EMS)

 

Polling and post-election analysis show that a majority of California’s ethnic voters overwhelmingly rejected the governor’s recall and, in some cases, helped turn large counties and suburbs in the governor’s favor. At the same time, many voters of color did not participate. Experts and activists discuss: What does detailed analysis say about the Latino vote, the largest of the ethnic voting blocks in the state. What were some of the missing narratives that can help the parties attract more of the growing BIPOC vote. What are the issues that Latinos, African America s and Asians on the ground were talking about when outreach workers knocked on their door?

 

A close look at California’s gubernatorial recall shows the impact of the state’s growing majority of ethnic voters, in an election whose outcome hinged on turnout. What issues brought Latinos,  African Americans, and AAPI voters to the polls, in numbers that made them decisive in some large counties and suburbs. Some lessons political observers can draw for mobilizing ethnic voters nationwide.

Speakers at an Ethnic Media Services briefing held Sept. 24, include – Dr Raphe Sonenshein, Executive Director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State LA; Sonja Diaz, Founding Director, UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Initiative (LPPI); Jonathan Paik, Executive Director of Orange County Civic Engagement Table (OCCET Action); Janette Robinson-Flint, Black Women for Wellness; and Michael Gomez Daly, Inland Empire United/Inland Empowerment.

Dr Raphe Sonenshein started the discussion with the problems – knowing why people vote, who votes, why, who people don’t vote.

“We really do a terrible job of that in this society and that’s a big problem because for a democracy it’s not enough to know what the leaders are doing you really have to know what the voters are doing and that is a particular issue in communities of color where media coverage generally looks for shortcuts,” said Dr Sonenshein.

The coverage of California communities of color is driven too much by national polling because national polling is what the national networks work off of, and then that filters its way down into the coverage throughout the country.

“When you draw a national survey on a quick overnight survey, you’re going to have a relatively small number of Latinos, a small number of African Americans, a small number of people from the AAPI community without much depth, and it can be very unrepresentative,” said Dr Sonenshein.

“I’m as interested in why people vote as why people don’t vote, just as I’m interested in why people get vaccinated as much as I’m interested in why people don’t get vaccinated. What you study reinforces people’s behavior you want your media for to be a mirror where people can see themselves and not everybody is a non-voter not everybody is an anti-vaxxer etc the great majority of people aren’t talking about it but they have a point of view that’s worth studying,” said Dr Sonenshein.

He advises to liberate from narratives that are driven by a very small number of largely national polls that are creating very negative consequences for the interpretation of community’s behavior, and it starts with getting to know neighborhoods better.

“In a neighborhood, a predominant group can tell a whole lot about a community, more than a national CNN poll with 10 people from California in it,” said Dr Sonenshein.

The number one rule is not to jump to conclusions and start writing conclusions before the first votes have actually been cast, warned Dr Sonenshein.

Sonja Diaz took a dive on the Latino vote, which is the largest ethnic vote after Whites in California. According to a research conducted on the night of the election, on the neighborhood precinct level, one of the things to understand about Latino voters is that they’re late deciders. They’re going to cast their ballot closer to election day, and that was true of the 2021 recall election.

Latino voters utilize more traditional ways, and for purposes of engagement, turnout and mobilization, one has to still knock doors, still reach out to those voters, because they likely have not vetted their ballot yet through the electoral weekend, said Diaz.

“For every Latino vote that was cast it was going to help Governor Newsom remain in the governor’s office, and in some ways, it neutralized the white ballots that were cast in that jurisdiction.

“If Larry Elder was not in the race, it was unlikely that the race would have had the outcome that it did, and been called on election night, and that’s where these votes, and this clear delineation on the part of Latino voters to be against the recall, would have even continued to be consequential,” said Diaz.

“Orange County has long been known as the conservative stronghold of white supremacy in California. We know the deep investments they made to sway our communities with their ideology. While people of color communities make up over 60 percent of Orange County, we’re struggling to still meet with tenants struggling to afford rent, undocumented communities facing threats of deportation, and workers struggling to survive during this pandemic. When all of our neighbors rose all across Orange County to defeat this recall, it was not just about this one critical election, it was a part of a legacy of fights to build the vision, and the dreams of what our communities deserve for decades here in the region, and that is why as a part of our effort, a core part of our strategy was to be able to mobilize the progressive Asian American vote alongside Latinx voters as well,” said Jonathan Paik.

“It was critical to be able to ensure outreach in six different languages – Tagalog, Vietnamese, Korean, Chinese, Hmong and Punjabi – and we did this not only through in-language ethnic media outreach, we knocked on doors, called on phones, placed ads in newspapers, TV, Radio, Digital ads, all across the state to be able to ensure that the 2.3 million Asian American voters showed up to be able to defeat the recall,” said Paik.

“This was part of a greater multi-racial strategy of grassroots organizers all across the state to be able to see this transformation and that multi-racial strategy is what has been leading the transformation that is needed in Orange County,” said Paik.

“With regards to young voter civic participation, ensure that our government, our state is responding to the most pressing needs of young people facing generational issues across our time. It’s going to take years of work to be able to deeply invest into a generation that is going to civically participate and believe that we deserve a better state for all of us,” said Paik.