• Annual new-vehicle sales pace in April is forecast to finish near 15.9 million, up 0.2 million from last April’s 15.7 million pace and an increase from March’s 15.5 million level.
  • April’s sales volume is expected to fall to 1.34 million units, a 2.2% decrease from one year ago and a 6.8% decrease from March.
  • Fewer selling days are driving adjustments to lift the sales pace, showing a healthy daily sales rate despite lower volumes.

Cox Automotive forecasts a decline in April’s U.S. new-vehicle sales compared to last year; however, the market remains on the road to recovery, with vehicle sales at a healthy pace. Cox Automotive confirms its forecast that 2024 will be the best year for new-vehicle sales since 2019.

Sales volume this month is expected to fall 2.2% from April 2023 to 1.34 million units. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace, is expected to finish near 15.9 million, up 0.2 million over last year’s pace and up 0.4 million from March’s 15.5 million level. There are 25 selling days in April, one less than last year and two less than last month. Due to adjustments based on the number of selling days, the sales pace is forecast to increase even though sales volume will likely show a decline.

Healthy inventory levels and rising incentives continue to support new-vehicle sales. At the beginning of April, the total supply of available new vehicles was up 46% compared to last April, according to the latest vAuto Live Market View data.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said: “Since April 2023, the new-vehicle SAAR has experienced some large swings, with an average sales pace in the mid-15 million level. This month, more volatility in the market is also expected, although the sales pace is anticipated to rise slightly. Despite high interest rates and elevated vehicle prices, consumers remain resilient. Sales growth may be sluggish, but growth continues. And we expect these conditions to persist throughout the year.”

April 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Sales Forecast1

Market Share

Segment

Apr-24

Apr-23

Mar-24

YOY

MOM

Apr-24

Apr-23

YOY

Mid-Size Car

75,000

87,087

78,687

-13.9 %

-4.7 %

5.6 %

6.4 %

-0.8 %

Compact Car

105,000

92,040

114,420

14.1 %

-8.2 %

7.9 %

6.7 %

1.2 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

260,000

223,401

277,474

16.4 %

-6.3 %

19.5 %

16.4 %

3.1 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

160,000

195,088

175,633

-18.0 %

-8.9 %

12.0 %

14.3 %

-2.3 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

225,000

240,241

243,193

-6.3 %

-7.5 %

16.9 %

17.6 %

-0.7 %

All Other Segments

510,000

526,524

542,682

-3.1 %

-6.0 %

38.2 %

38.6 %

-0.4 %

Grand Total

1,335,000

1,364,381

1,432,089

-2.2 %

-6.8 %

1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.