US President Donald Trump — seen here delivering remarks to the Venezuelan-American community in Miami in February 2019 — has earned praise for Venezuelan-born voters in Florida for his handling of the crisis in Caracas (Jim WATSON)

Miami (AFP) – Normally, the political and economic crisis raging in Venezuela would hardly crack the list of important issues affecting American political races.

But it’s a huge deal for the Venezuelan diaspora in Florida, which is a key swing state for any candidate who wants to win the White House in 2020.

So even a small change such as how Venezuelan exiles here are leaning can have a huge impact for the biggest prize of all in US politics.

“Florida is such a closely contested state that political shifts by even small groups can have big implications,” said Michael McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida.

Roughly 150,000 Venezuelans live in the Sunshine State, which is home to 21 million people, 14 million of them registered voters. 

While only 36,000 people born in Venezuela are voters, there are “tens of thousands” more who are second- or third-generation, according to Daniel Smith, a professor at Florida International University.

“It is not nearly as sizable a population as Cuban-Americans, but they’re important,” Smith told AFP.

“They have been registering more with the Democratic party lately, but I’m sure the Trump administration sees them as potential swing voters depending on how the crisis is handled there.”

– ‘Gracias, Trump’ –

So far, many are pleased with President Donald Trump’s insistence that embattled Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro must go, and his support of opposition self-declared interim president Juan Guaido.

Florida’s US Senator Marco Rubio, son of Cuban immigrants, has taken the lead on crafting and pushing US policy on Maduro, who is blamed for running the oil-rich country’s economy into the ground.

As support for Guaido grows, independent-minded Venezuelans in Florida like what they see in Trump — and in Rubio.

“While I am not a Republican, I really appreciate the support of Trump and the US government in the Venezuela conflict,” said Venezuelan actress Bettina Grand, 53, who has lived in Miami for a decade.

In the southern Florida city, cars with red, blue and yellow Venezuelan flags are not unusual. Posters that say “Gracias, Trump” or “Thanks, Trump” are ubiquitous.

That is not good news for Democrats, according to veteran local politician Tomas Regalado.

– Few but noisy –

Regalado, a former mayor of Miami, says domestic politics not just in the United States but also in Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and Haiti are key to success for any politician in Florida.

Such issues are the “bread and butter of senators and members of the House of Representatives from south Florida,” Regalado told AFP.

Florida is considered a microcosm of the diverse US melting pot, and it’s hard to predict in any given election if it will lean Democrat or Republican.

For instance, Eloisa Silva, a 30-year-old physical therapist who has lived in Miami for 12 years, said Trump did “what he had to do.”

“It doesn’t make me like him more. I just think that any president should now be supporting Venezuela,” said Silva.

Local politicians and Americans in general will never forget that just 500 votes in Florida handed the 2000 presidential election to Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore.

And although there aren’t that many Venezuelans in Florida, “they make a lot of noise,” Regalado said, recalling his days in Miami’s city hall.

“They are vehement in their beliefs. They are incredibly good at mobilizing and they draw the attention of the news media.”

– Democrats seek traction –

The Democratic Party, sensing a shift they cannot afford, are bending over backwards to woo voters with Venezuelan roots.

They are seeking out photo ops with Venezuelan opposition leaders, and top party leaders like Bill and Hillary Clinton have called on Maduro to let international aid into the country, and to leave office.

“The heartbreaking violence in Venezuela must stop,” the former president said on Twitter. 

“I stand with President @JGuaido, the National Assembly, and the people of #Venezuela as they embrace their right to live in peace, choose their leaders, and decide their future, in harmony with their neighbors.”

Presidential hopefuls like Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders have done the same.

Democrats are also increasing pressure on Trump to grant Venezuelans so-called Temporary Protected Status, granted to people from designated countries affected by armed conflict or natural disaster.

“They don’t want to be left behind,” Smith said. “They don’t want to be outflanked by the Trump administration.”

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