Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora along with the Election Commissioners Ashok Lavasa and Sushil Chandra visiting the state-level exhibition organized under the “Systematic Voter Education and Electoral Participation Program” (SVEEP), in Chandigarh, Oct. 10. (PIB)

All eyes are set on the north Indian state of Haryana that once epitomized political notoriety, “Aaya Ram Gaya Ram” (political horse trading by serial turncoats)-style defections and nepotistic clans, as it goes to polls on Oct. 21 for 90 seats of its Vidhan Sabha (legislative assembly).

In the current fray, the incumbent Manohar Lal Khattar-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government is widely expected to reap rich dividends, riding on the crest of Modi wave that enabled a historic mandate in the recently held General Elections, against its primary challengers – Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led state unit of Indian National Congress (INC) and Om Prakash Chautala, out on parole for conviction in the teacher recruitment scam, led Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and an array of smaller outfits and independent enthusiasts.

Since the creation of this predominantly agricultural state on Nov. 1, 1966, it was only in 2014 that the saffron party (BJP) helmed the political mantle, catapulting to 47 seats in 2014 (33.2% vote share) from a marginal 4 (9.05% vote share) seats in 2009, mainly due to disenchantment of 35 non-Jat communities who comprise 75% of state-populace with the prior Jat led governments of Chautala (1999-2005) and then Hooda (2005-2014).

The open favoritism of Jats to fill the rank and file of state politics, administration and industry led to a deep yearning for a radical transformative change within the non-Jat population that culminated with the carving out of an independent Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) Bhajan Lal (BL) party in 2007 under Congress leader Kuldeep Bishnoi, younger son of Chief Minister Bhajan Lal, the first non-Jat Chief Minister of the state, and one who had used non-Jat politics as his forte.

What followed suit was the clever tie-up of a marginal BJP with HJC (BL), in 2013, for political visibility and inroads into non-Jat vote bank, which it amply gained via Bishnoi’s state wide rallies, and coupled with the onslaught of the 2014 Modi wave it managed a stunning performance as its vote share zoomed to 35%, ushering it out of the dark ages of political oblivion.

With the purpose of social coalition with HJC (BL) served, and the Modi wave established as a “winning” vehicle in polls, four months before the 2014 assembly elections, the ruse of Bishnoi’s attempts to drive a hard bargain against BJP’s demand for 75 seat-share, in upcoming assembly elections, were conveniently used to call off this alliance.

Going solo and holding out promises of non-sycophancy and good governance over corruption, a taint that had become a second name of Hooda’s government and his handpicked appointees, who along with Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi, are now “booked for alleged irregularities in land deals, criminal conspiracy, cheating public at large and causing unlawful loss to the state,” it was a landmark win for BJP.

However, even as the timing of last July’s income tax raids on assets of Bishnoi, legislator from Adampur constituency, a family turf for past 50 years, and his wife Renuka Bishnoi, legislator from Hansi, both of whom returned to the Congress fold in 2016, is being termed as a pre-election stunt of image maligning by sources, it is also reminiscent of a joint IT, Enforcement Directorate and CBI raid of Bhajan Lal’s properties in 1998 and 2004 raid of Bishnoi’s assets which eventually awarded in a clean chit to them.

Chart showing the gender breakup of voters in Haryana. (PIB)

However, what remains inexplicable is the fielding of an insignificant TikTok star Sonali Phogat, by the BJP against the regional heavyweight, Bishnoi, as much surprising is its denial of tickets to 7 sitting legislators and 2 ministers.

But making it to BJP’s final cut are Olympic medalist Yogeshwar Dutt (Baroda), Commonwealth medal winner Babita Phogat (Dadri), former national hockey captain Sandeep Singh (Pehowa); old favorites including Subhash Barala (Tohana) whose son was booked for stalking and attempt to molest a bureaucrat’s daughter, Ram Bilas Sharma (Mahendragarh), Captain Abhimanyu (Narnaund) of infamous Jat agitation that accompanied rape, arson and looting in 2017, Dur Ram Bishnoi, nephew of Bhajan Lal, and O.P. Dhankar (Badli), a newbie Nauksham Chaudhary, and 14 deserters, mostly from INLD.

For its part, Congress, despite being the main challenger to the Modi juggernaut, has once again fielded the 73-year-old Hooda, and Kumari Selja, a Dalit who last won election in 2009, as state party president, replacing Ashok Tanwar, a Rahul Gandhi loyalist, leading to his open protest and resignation from the party, exposing Congress’ deep internal dissensions between old and new factions, a welcome news to BJP.

Though Congress bastions have crumbled elsewhere, results of only these upcoming polls will be able to throw up indicative conclusions as to where combination of Congress and HJC merger that secured 22.6 and 2.6% vote shares respectively in 2014, are headed to.

Other prominent contestants from the party are national INC spokesperson Randeep Surjewala and Chandra Mohan of ex-Fiza romance fame, who is contesting from Panchkula, the foundation stone of which was laid down by his own father Bhajan Lal.

The Devi Lal-founded INLD party, second significant arch rival of the BJP, is facing an implosion as its party MP from Sirsa (2014-2019) Charanjeet Singh Rori, recently joined the Congress.

Previously, a major feud in the Chautala clan had resulted in the formation of Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) by former Hisar MP, Dushyant Chautala forming), after his expulsion post a bitter squabble with uncle Abhay Chautala.

With most prominent leaders leaving for the BJP, and untimely death of Sardar Jaswinder Singh Sandhu, INLD MP from Pehowa constituency, the party’s prospects singularly rests on shoulders of Abhay, son of the chief, who is seeking re-election from his Ellenabad constituency.

While the INLD had garnered second overall position with 22.4% votes, winning 19 seats in last assembly elections, accounting for almost one-fourth of the votes, the JJP had managed 4.9% of vote share in its electoral debut in 2019 and is going all out with promises of 75% quota in state employment to those with Haryana domicile to woo voters.

Besides, these are other candidates, some from Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party, Yogendra Yadav of Swaraj Party, and Loktantra Suraksha Party’s Rajkumar Saini, who along with a few independents are not expected to make any indelible impression.

Therefore, the Haryana-poll-story may be perceived to be a two cornered battle — the Congress as the only viable alternative ramming into BJP’s citadel-gates, on its misses on promises on local upliftment, economic slowdown and rising food prices while the BJP derives sustenance in emotive nationalist appeals, pension scheme, promises for an early National Register of Citizens in the state, and its decisive abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, in a bid to dissolve binaries of caste between non-Jat and Jat voters in its favor, apart from fomenting splits or at best non-consolidation of votes for Congress.

And of national and international interest will be questions as to whether the Modi wave is of stable or transient nature in Haryana that once held the fancy of foreign investors, and if and how well the regional heavyweights retain their turfs.