Asian American Independent voters, a significant and often overlooked bloc, may hold the key to victory in a tightly contested 2024 Presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

In a media briefing on September 6, hosted by Ethnic Media Services, a panel of experts discussed how AAPI voters in the upcoming election could affect the outcome in swing states. 

Speakers

  • Shekar Narasimhan, Founder and Chairman of the AAPI Victory Fund, Michigan
  • Mohan Seshadri, Executive Director of the Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance, Pennsylvania
  • Christine Chen, co-Founder and Executive Director of APIAVote
  • Professor James Zarsadiaz, Associate Professor of History and Director of the Yuchengco Philippine Studies Program, University of San Francisco
  • Dr. Tung Nguyen, President of PIVOT, The Progressive Vietnamese American Organization
  • Rina Shah, Republican strategist and serves on the advisory board of the Renew Democracy Initiative

Independent Voters in Play

A New York Times/Siena College poll released just before the September 10 debate showed Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 1 point, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 points. The two candidates are neck and neck in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. In Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, Harris leads Trump by a fraction, while Trump edges ahead by 1 point in Georgia.

These critical battleground states are home to approximately 1.75 million eligible voters from the Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (AANHPI) communities. Although they make up only 3-4% of the voting population in these states, that could be enough to sway the election.

Rina Shah emphasized that the large bloc of AANHPI Independents is still up for grabs by any party willing to engage meaningfully with this community. According to the 2024 Asian American Voter Survey, fewer than 42% of AANHPI voters had been contacted by either party.

Shah pointed out that key issues like immigration reform, education, and economic opportunity resonate with AANHPI voters, regardless of party affiliation. She argued that both Democrats and Republicans need to step up efforts to engage this voter base through targeted outreach and addressing specific concerns. This could involve hosting local events, collaborating with community leaders, and crafting policies that cater to the unique needs of the AANHPI community.

“To court the growing independent AANHPI vote, it’s going to take a mix of relevant policy focus as well as genuine engagement,” Shah said.

She also noted that while some Republicans are disillusioned with Trump at the top of the ticket, they may vote for Harris while still supporting Republicans in down-ballot races.

First-Time Voters Could Tip the Scale

Christine Chen highlighted the power of AANHPI voters, with 15 million eligible to vote in 2024. In 2020, around 65% of this group turned out to vote. Importantly, many were voting for the first time. In key battleground states, roughly 1 in 4 AANHPI voters were first-timers.

Chen pointed out that in Georgia, President Biden’s victory margin was fewer than 12,000 votes, while 142,000 AAPIs voted in the state. Of those, 26% were first-time voters, meaning about 39,000 voters—three times the margin of Biden’s victory—could have tipped the scale.

Bread-and-butter issues, immigration, and crime remain high on the list of concerns for AANHPI voters, but Chen said a notable portion sees little difference between the parties on how effectively these issues will be addressed.

The Key to Victory

Shekar Narasimhan believes the AANHPI vote could be the deciding factor in 2024. “I prefer actually, instead of saying that we are the margin of victory, to saying now that we are the reason for victory,” Narasimhan said from Michigan, where he organized a massive Get Out the Vote initiative.

Narasimhan stressed that AANHPI voters across the political spectrum need to be actively courted. He noted that in the 2020 election, many Asian American voters were not reached during the first virtual campaign year, despite being highly active on social media.

“Candidates don’t know how to talk to us, which language to reach, which communities to talk to, the WhatsApp channels that we frequent, or the television. And therefore, there is an absence of information,” he explained. Many AANHPI voters are classified as low-information voters, which adds to the challenge. Narasimhan emphasized that candidates must show up in these communities and speak to voters on the issues that matter most, such as immigration and small business support.

A Possible Shift for Vietnamese Americans

Dr. Tung Nguyen noted that Vietnamese American voters, traditionally one of the most conservative groups within the AANHPI community, are beginning to lean left. Around 25% of Vietnamese American voters now identify as Independent and remain persuadable.

Nguyen also warned about the spread of misinformation within the community, particularly in Vietnamese, much of it spread via platforms like YouTube. To counter this, PIVOT, the Progressive Vietnamese American Organization, launched VietFactCheck, a bilingual fact-checking service aimed at combating misinformation.

PIVOT has also developed a bilingual Get Out the Vote campaign that targets a wide range of platforms, including those favored by conservative, Trump-supporting groups. Ahead of the 2024 election, the group plans to send out 100,000 hand-written postcards.

Shifting Allegiances

Nguyen observed that many older Vietnamese Americans who once supported Trump have grown disillusioned, mainly due to character issues, especially following the January 2021 insurrection. On the other hand, younger Vietnamese Americans are dissatisfied with the Biden Administration’s handling of international issues, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, making them hesitant to fully back Harris.

Historically, Dr. James Zarsadiaz pointed out Asian Americans leaned Republican until the 1990s, when issues like traditional family values and economic growth aligned with the party’s platform. However, a shift began in the early 2000s, as anti-Asian rhetoric and “hard-right” policies drove many AAPIs toward the Democratic Party. Zarsadiaz is currently working on a book, The Asian American Conservative.

But the tide could be turning again, especially after the rise in anti-Asian hate crimes during the pandemic, which left many AANHPI voters feeling unsupported by Democrats. “There are a lot of registered Asian American Democrats who are starting to move more right, voting for maybe central left or more moderate Democrats, as opposed to backing folks who are more liberal or more progressive,” Zarsadiaz said.

The Ultimate Battleground: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, considered by many to be the deciding state in the 2024 election, will likely see a significant push from both parties for the AANHPI vote. Mohan Seshadri called it “the battleground of battlegrounds,” stressing the importance of grassroots political power in the AANHPI community.

In 2020, Seshadri’s organization doubled the Asian American vote in Pennsylvania, providing half of Biden’s margin of victory in the state. For 2024, they plan to knock on 500,000 doors, make 5 million phone calls, and send a million mailers—all in 22 different languages.

“We’re going to send a million pieces of mail in the languages our communities speak with representation from our community leaders on it in order to meet every single member of our community where they are, and make sure they know not just how to vote in this critical election, but also which candidates up and down the ballot are actually going to listen to and fight for our communities,” Seshadri said.