With presidential elections approaching amid political violence and division, how will national conventions and the electoral process impact and be impacted by voters?

In a media briefing on July 19, hosted by Ethnic Media Services, a panel of experts sought to make sense of the unique circumstances in which the 2024 Elections are being held in.  

Speakers

  • Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, Retired Professor of the Practice of Public Policy Communication, Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California. She was the political analyst for NBC4 Los Angeles and is one-half of the podcast “Inside Golden State Politics.”
  • Bill Schneider, Professor Emeritus, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University. He was CNN’s Senior Political Analyst from 1990 to 2009. He has been a Visiting Professor at the University of California at Los Angeles, Boston College, and Brandeis University.
  • Jonathan Diaz, Director of Voting Advocacy and Partnerships, Campaign Legal Center.

Political Conventions

Conventions have evolved significantly over the years. Conventions “aren’t what they used to be — that’s for sure,” said Sherry Jeffe. “Conventions used to be how delegates chose the presidential and vice presidential nominees … Today, they’re more about campaigning for a choice that’s already been made through the primaries.”

Jeffe anticipates that the Democratic convention will gain significant momentum, especially with the expectation of Biden’s departure. She predicted the convention would “have the muscle it hasn’t had for a very long time.”

Kamala Harris, currently serving as the vice president and noted for being the first Black and South Asian woman in the role, stands to become the nation’s first female president if she wins the upcoming election. She has garnered the support of a majority of Democratic delegates, and recently, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama have formally endorsed her campaign.

Despite these developments, Jeffe highlighted the increasing role of social media in political conventions. “I could argue that this is the first convention in the social media era, and that has everybody as a ‘delegate,’” she noted. She elaborated, “Even with Obama, social media was mainly a fundraising tool … Now, social media is shaping the debate. Every campaign now has a director of social media, and Donald Trump even has his own social media platform,” Truth Social.

Jonathan Diaz emphasized the acceleration of this shift due to the pandemic. “That shift really accelerated with the pandemic limiting the in-person campaigning ability of both parties,” he said. Diaz further explained that since 2020, the nomination, campaign, and convention processes have predominantly moved online, resulting in “more disinformation circulating through social media than ever … lowering confidence in the electoral system.”

Recent data from the Pew Research Center indicates that as of April 2024, only 22% of Americans trust the federal government “just about always” or “most of the time.” This reflects a near-historic low, consistent with a June 2024 Partnership for Public Service poll, which found that merely 23% of Americans trust the government at all.

Bill Schneider pointed out the current nature of conventions, describing them as “public relations events.” He stated, “The process of screening the candidates’ moral, medical, legal or financial records, formerly done by party bosses, is now done by the press to inform ordinary voters choosing a nominee” prior to the convention, during the primaries.

Schneider also noted the significant influence Donald Trump has within the Republican Party, which was evident during the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. “The 2024 Republican National Convention, held in Milwaukee the week of Monday, July 15, ‘proved that Donald Trump has taken complete possession of the Republican Party. There is no opposition anymore,’” he added. Schneider observed that the party’s base has shifted from the affluent “country club” league to the white working class, likening it to the ideology of Archie Bunker.

The Elections

Schneider continued to discuss Trump’s impact on Republican policies. “The conservatism of Reagan and both Bushes has been repudiated. The Republican Party had been internationalist since 1949, when it voted to join NATO. It’s now an isolationist party. It doesn’t talk about national debt anymore … Now, it’s a populist party — not just economically, but social populism … He intends to deport a million illegal immigrants in his first year.”

The Republican voter base has been shifting culturally, according to Schneider. “White voters without a college degree have been becoming more Republican for about 20 years, the reason has less to do with economics than it does with cultural issues,” he said. “They resent the power of the educated elite who run the Democratic Party. We call it the ‘diploma divide.’”

The Electoral College remains a point of contention, primarily supported by Republicans. Schneider explained, “The electoral college itself ‘now has principally Republican supporters because without it, Trump would never have become president. He lost the popular vote.’” He added, “But nothing is likely to change in the electoral rules … because to change the Electoral College, you have to change the Constitution, which involves not just Congress, but state legislatures, which are now dominated by Republicans and are likely to be more dominated by Republicans.”

New allegations of voter fraud by Trump and his allies echo the 2020 election, where over 60 cases nationwide failed to prove fraud. Despite this, 19 states passed 34 laws in 2021 restricting voting access.

This month, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the SAVE Act, which mandates documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration. Although citizenship is already a requirement to vote, the new legislation introduces costly administrative changes that could take months or years to implement.

Trump has expressed his conditional acceptance of the 2024 election results, stating he’ll only accept them “if everything’s honest.”

Diaz cautioned about the influence of repeated fraud claims. “If you say enough times that there’s all this fraud, no matter how little evidence you have, some people will start to believe it,” he said. Diaz warned that if the election results are close, or if Trump loses, he might exploit this uncertainty to challenge the results, similar to his actions in 2020, but now with a more sympathetic federal judiciary and Supreme Court.

The current Supreme Court consists of a supermajority of six Republican-appointed judges against three Democratic appointees, with three of the Republican judges appointed by Trump, two by George H. W. Bush, and one by George W. Bush.

Diaz remains hopeful about the future of American democracy. “What gives me hope is that the concern among regular people over the health of our democracy has only increased,” he said. Reflecting on his earlier priorities as a lawyer, Diaz noted that election reforms and voting rights now rank highly among voter concerns, as evidenced by recent polls.

A March 2024 Georgetown survey, conducted by both Republican and Democrat pollsters, revealed that 81% of respondents believed American democracy is/was being threatened, with 72% agreeing strongly.

Diaz concluded with a call to action: “Democracy only works if everyone plays their part to not just preserve but advance it,” he said. He finds hope in the engagement of regular voters who are deeply concerned about the direction of the country and the state of democracy, reinforcing his belief that the fight for democracy is far from over.