{"id":72408,"date":"2019-04-20T15:08:56","date_gmt":"2019-04-20T22:08:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/?p=72408"},"modified":"2019-04-20T15:09:22","modified_gmt":"2019-04-20T22:09:22","slug":"india-is-high-on-josh-decoding-modis-electoral-chances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/india-is-high-on-josh-decoding-modis-electoral-chances\/","title":{"rendered":"India is high on \u201cJosh!\u201d \u2013 Decoding Modi\u2019s Electoral Chances"},"content":{"rendered":"

File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking at the inauguration of Basava Jayanthi 2017 and Golden Jubilee Celebration of Basava Samithi, in New Delhi, April 29, 2017. (Manvender Vashist\/PTI)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

With <\/span>the <\/span>for <\/span>the first phase of General elections<\/span> well on its way <\/span>for the 17<\/span>th<\/span> Lok Sabha<\/span>,<\/span> the country\u2019s <\/span>electoral <\/span>atmospheric<\/span> is <\/span>all <\/span>charg<\/span>ed<\/span> up<\/span> and matching the soaring climb in weather <\/span>temperatures.<\/span><\/p>\n

The incumbent Prime Minister <\/span>(PM) <\/span>Narendra Modi, heading the <\/span>Bharatiya<\/span> Janata Party (BJP) \u00a0<\/span>and <\/span>leading the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be fighting to stay in power while a variety of opposition parties such \u00a0as Indian National Congress<\/span> (INC)<\/span>, <\/span>Bahujan<\/span> Samaj<\/span> Party (BSP), All India Anna <\/span>Dravida<\/span> Mun<\/span>n<\/span>etra<\/span>Ka<\/span>zhagam<\/span> (<\/span>AIADMK<\/span>)<\/span>, <\/span>and Samajwadi Party (SP) <\/span>will be <\/span>amongst other <\/span>significant political players a<\/span>nd <\/span>independent<\/span> candidates in making <\/span>individual<\/span> and <\/span>allied attempts<\/span>, in terms of a coalition or <\/span>\u2018<\/span>Mahagathbandhan<\/span>,<\/span>\u2019<\/span> at challenging the <\/span>saffron <\/span>behemoth.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the 2014 poll tally, <\/span>BJP was at 282 seats, <\/span>joined by allies to<\/span> make up the<\/span> NDA that <\/span>stands<\/span> at 336 out of total of 543 seats<\/span>, and the <\/span>United Progressive Alliance <\/span>(UPA)<\/span> on the other hand had just about<\/span> 60 seats<\/span>, <\/span>headed by INC at 44 seats, <\/span>and <\/span>NCP at 6, <\/span>RJD at 4, JMM at 2, and others<\/span> making up the composition<\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

Coming to 2019 stint, <\/span>Modi <\/span>has embarked on<\/span> his formal campaign with a big bang, <\/span>the<\/span> announcement of India\u2019s anti-satellite (A-SAT) missile test on March 28<\/span>,<\/span>though many critics prefer to <\/span>describ<\/span>e him as an incumbent who h<\/span>as <\/span>been in <\/span>perpetual state of<\/span> campaign all through his tenure as PM.<\/span><\/p>\n

Immediately <\/span>after th<\/span>e televised address to the nation<\/span>,<\/span> he <\/span>embarked on <\/span>vigorous <\/span>campaigning<\/span> for a second term starting<\/span> in Uttar Pradesh<\/span>, Uttarakhand<\/span>,<\/span> Jammu <\/span>& Kashmir<\/span>,<\/span> then <\/span>a tour of <\/span>Odisha, Telangana <\/span>and <\/span>Andhra Pradesh<\/span>,<\/span> from where he <\/span>moved on <\/span>to <\/span>a whistle<\/span>–<\/span>stop tour of the <\/span>north<\/span>–<\/span>eastern states <\/span>and then <\/span>to <\/span>the western state of <\/span>Maharashtra.<\/span><\/p>\n

An analysis of<\/span> BJP\u2019s election strategies <\/span>reveals both strands of <\/span>continuation and introduction of new <\/span>themes structured around the focal <\/span>narrative <\/span>of <\/span>\u201c<\/span>a <\/span>decisive government versus an indecisive past<\/span>,<\/span>\u201d<\/span> something that has been reiterated by Modi himself.<\/span><\/p>\n

In his recent speeches he has not been shy of a frontal attack <\/span>at the Congress <\/span>accusing it of presiding over the cent<\/span>er<\/span> for decades since 1947 without ensuring all round development of states thereby giving rise to migration of villagers to cities in search of jobs and amenities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amidst resounding applause he turned t<\/span>he taunt of c<\/span>howkidar (<\/span>watchman<\/span>) on its head and called himself \u201c<\/span>the nation<\/span>\u2019<\/span>s <\/span>\u2018<\/span>chowkidar<\/span>\u2019<\/span>\u201d<\/span> whose paramount<\/span> duty <\/span>is to <\/span>p<\/span>rotect <\/span>and secure <\/span>the nation<\/span> with his <\/span>strong administration that <\/span>evinces c<\/span>ourage<\/span>and capability to strike at the enemy<\/span> in all<\/span> four <\/span>spheres <\/span>of <\/span>land,<\/span> water,<\/span> sky and space<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a clear deviation from his <\/span>2014 campaign <\/span>that was themed on <\/span>developme<\/span>nt (<\/span>\u2018<\/span>vikas<\/span>\u2019<\/span>) plank<\/span> and <\/span>also due to the successful outcomes of the sudden <\/span>counter<\/span>strikes<\/span> at <\/span>Balakot<\/span>,<\/span> Pakistan, <\/span>in the aftermath of <\/span>Pulwama<\/span> terror <\/span>at<\/span>tack<\/span>,<\/span> that shook the Pakistani government<\/span>,<\/span> this time<\/span> hence<\/span>, <\/span>BJP\u2019s <\/span>poll narrative <\/span>is based on <\/span>t<\/span>hree<\/span>features<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Foremost amongst these is <\/span>national security<\/span>, as per which <\/span>India<\/span> requires <\/span>to be protected <\/span>from its enemy neighbor, Pakistan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Interestingly, the choice of the enemy state is Pakistan over which New Delhi has a <\/span>clear <\/span>moral, <\/span>military and economic upper<\/span>–<\/span>hand<\/span>,<\/span> and Modi<\/span> has<\/span> accused<\/span> the <\/span>Opposition parties of <\/span>\u201c<\/span>suspecting the capabilities of the Indian army in an attempt to emerge h<\/span>eroes in Pakistan<\/span>.<\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The second <\/span>theme <\/span>is along <\/span>the lines of Hindutva<\/span>,<\/span> to emotionally appeal to the majority community by accusing the Congress for coining the term<\/span> \u201c<\/span>Hindu Ter<\/span>r<\/span>or\u201d when none such phenomenon exists<\/span> and to prove this claim he drew attention to the fear of <\/span>Hindu anger translating into an electoral loss<\/span>, as harbored by <\/span>Rahul Gandhi, <\/span>the Congress president<\/span>, <\/span>for his decision to <\/span>fight<\/span> for <\/span>a second Lok Sabha seat from Wayanad in Kerala<\/span> based on <\/span>religious demographics<\/span> of the constituency<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The third theme is its<\/span> anti-corruption crusade <\/span>\u2013 bankruptcy law, <\/span>and filing of cases against defaulters of loans and the absence of <\/span>big ticket scams<\/span> that had decimated the image of previous governments<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Modi tried his hand at structural reforms that would pay in the long run yet his demonetization move and his government\u2019s calculation of core economic indices based on which India can be termed as amongst the top three performing economies of the world in 2018 has generated sufficient controversy.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, on the implementation of Good and Services Tax<\/span> (GST)<\/span> that started off on a sour note <\/span>now there is the<\/span> cheerful news of record collections <\/span>Rs<\/span>.<\/span>1.06 trillion<\/span>for March 2019<\/span>, taking up <\/span>total GST collect<\/span>ions <\/span>to <\/span>Rs<\/span>.<\/span>11.77 trillion<\/span>,<\/span> and along<\/span>with the direct tax collection of Rs<\/span>.<\/span>11.5 trillion, <\/span>it indicates picking up of<\/span> revenue growth<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though there were structural reforms that yield results in the long term were undertaken<\/span>,<\/span> enabled <\/span>by<\/span> dipping of inflation<\/span>, world oil prices and <\/span>improved governance practices,<\/span> it is would be appropriate to say that the journey <\/span>in the country\u2019s growth trajectory has just begun.<\/span><\/p>\n

And Modi has affirmed just this.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though several opinion polls have predicted a victory for Modi, there are hurdles in <\/span>the way of a favo<\/span>rable <\/span>electoral arithmetic <\/span>as<\/span> the saffron party<\/span>\u2019s <\/span>ally, AIADMK<\/span>,<\/span>in Tamil Nadu<\/span>, a <\/span>state that sends 9 MPs to the Lok Sabha, is<\/span> facing dissidence and anti-incumbency<\/span> due to the demise of its <\/span>extremely po<\/span>pular leader, late Jayalalithaa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally<\/span>,<\/span> the northern Hindi cow<\/span>–<\/span>belt is no more a BJP bastion where <\/span>i<\/span>n UP and Bihar<\/span>, both o<\/span>f which make for 120 seats<\/span>, are witnessing the coalescing of <\/span>S<\/span>P and BSP <\/span>under <\/span>Ajit<\/span> Singh\u2019s R<\/span>L<\/span>D<\/span> and<\/span> giving a tough fight to the BJP<\/span>,<\/span> and the INC expected to cut into the share of BJP.<\/span><\/p>\n

I<\/span>n the<\/span> 2018-end<\/span> assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and <\/span>Chhatisgarh<\/span>there were predictable gains for the INC on account of <\/span>anti-incumbency due to <\/span>high unemployment<\/span> and <\/span>farmers\u2019 <\/span>distress, something that may keep the BJP on tenterhooks<\/span> once again<\/span> when<\/span> nation-wide<\/span> counting of votes begins.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is therefore crucial to see how the opposition<\/span> or those in the <\/span>\u2018<\/span>Mahagathbandhan<\/span>\u2019<\/span>stand against in their pitch against Modi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Besides, t<\/span>he fact that not a single opposition leader has till date claimed of takin<\/span>g on the PM single handedly <\/span>that reiterates of their <\/span>lack of confidence<\/span>, there is an obvious lack of chemistry amongst the allies<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is also the factor of paucity of credibility as <\/span>most of Modi-challengers <\/span>fac<\/span>e <\/span>corruption charges<\/span>,<\/span> if they already not on bail<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking individually of the <\/span>INC<\/span>, <\/span>it does not even come to the level of any regional party in inspir<\/span>ing any hope <\/span>and has <\/span>lost invaluable time by<\/span> committing mistakes<\/span>, <\/span>beginning with <\/span>a rather too drawn out criticism of the <\/span>government for <\/span>its<\/span>Balkot<\/span> counter-<\/span>strikes<\/span> that were in keeping with the prevailing <\/span>national mood <\/span>to give the enemy terrorist-sending a befitting reply.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also, with each <\/span>regional satrap<\/span> wanting to cut the other to size in the<\/span> Ashok <\/span>Ghelot<\/span>versus <\/span>Sachin<\/span> Pilot<\/span>,<\/span> and Digvijay Singh <\/span>versus<\/span> Kamal Nath<\/span> duels it is not possible that <\/span>party<\/span> would remain unscathed from developing<\/span> deep fissures in its <\/span>cad<\/span>rr<\/span>morale and organizational strength.<\/span><\/p>\n

Riddled with these issues it is therefore not a surprise to see<\/span> the INC<\/span> depending on <\/span>a rather <\/span>shaky platform of <\/span>anti-incumbenc<\/span>y<\/span> and a highly populist manifesto which ha<\/span>s<\/span> encapsulated <\/span>unviable but benevolent sounding targets such as NYAY,<\/span>minimum income guarantee<\/span>, <\/span>b<\/span>etraying political desperation<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover<\/span>,<\/span> Gandhi\u2019s <\/span>borderline Hinduism <\/span>and <\/span>recent call to the Muslims to vote <\/span>enbloc<\/span> against Modi ha<\/span>ve contributed to an image of flipflop behavior that <\/span>raise<\/span>s<\/span>heckles amongst <\/span>religious<\/span>–<\/span>minded voters<\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

In this backdrop and <\/span>armed <\/span>with this polit<\/span>ical ammunition there is a high probability that Modi may make it to the finishing line first.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking at the inauguration of Basava Jayanthi 2017 and Golden Jubilee Celebration of Basava Samithi, in New Delhi, April 29, 2017. (Manvender Vashist\/PTI) With the for the first phase of General elections well on its way for the 17th Lok Sabha, the country\u2019s electoral atmospheric is all charged…<\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":72409,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[275,5,276,72,19],"tags":[565,8693,6626,5710,16419,50,49,4449,3665,2643,147],"class_list":["post-72408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-community","category-current-affairs","category-opinion","category-politics-current-affairs","category-topics","tag-bjp","tag-8693","tag-congress","tag-general-elections","tag-inc","tag-india","tag-narendra-modi","tag-polls","tag-priyanka-bhardwaj","tag-rahul-gandhi","tag-siliconeer"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72408"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72408\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/72409"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/siliconeer.com\/current\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}