Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte says he expects a “further contraction of gross domestic product” (Iakovos HATZISTAVROU)

Rome (AFP) – Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Wednesday that the economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter, which if true would plunge the country into a recession.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of 2018 is set to be released Thursday by the ISTAT national statistics office.

“I expect a further contraction of gross domestic product,” Conte said at a business conference in Milan.

It would make it the second consecutive quarter of falling GDP — after a drop of 0.1 percent in the third quarter — and would tip Italy into recession.

“Analysts tell us we’ll likely still suffer a bit at the start of this year,” he said, pointing the finger at a slowdown in China and Germany which are hurting Italian exports.

“But all the elements are there to recover in the second half,” he said.

A recession is likely to put pressure on the spending plans of Italy’s populist government.

The coalition of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party was forced to water down its big-spending budget in December to avoid being punished by the European Commission and financial markets.

A slowdown will make it even harder to follow through on expensive vote-winning measures both parties promised their bases.

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